Clark County, Washington Puns

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Before I take a look at today's numbers, I'd like to suggest you don't forget to join our little election pool and predict some of the outcomes

From today's numbers:

• The first day that ballot returns have been lower in 2020 than they were on the same day in 2016 - but that was inevitable. A quarter million ballots returned today, and 327k in 2016.
• Every county is now over 60%, and 2 counties are over 80% - and the two biggest return days are still ahead of us.
• Total turnout this year is already over 104% of what it was in 2016.
• This isn't in the numbers, but another finding is: I'm tired, and ready for this election to be over. In fact, I'm ready for 2020 to be over, but I'm a little afraid of what the final boss might be like.
• Anecdotally, I have walked by my local ballot drop box a bunch of times and a) never seen anyone doing anything sketchy, b) have seen a steady stream of people still voting, but no more than 2 cars in line at once, and c) feel better after a walk.
• Typically, the first results are posted by the state of Washington shortly after the polls close at 8pm tomorrow. There may be updates throughout the night as the elections departments try to count more and more ballots. Then over the next few days the count will be finalized.

One last note about the /r/vancouverwa election pool:

• I'll keep the form open until around noon tomorrow - maybe 2pm depending on how work goes. My company gives 3 hours off to vote, so I'll probably quit for the day at 2.
• Some of you who have already submitted answers have given answers that are mathematically impossible. (Final voter turnout is not going to be 56%. The election results will not be decided on October 3rd, that sort of thing). If you go back to the link, it should give you an option to edit your answers - you can edit as much as you want right up to when I close it.

Thanks for coming along on this ride with me over the past couple of weeks.

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Here are todays relevant and/or semi-relevant items:

• Another 300k+ ballot day. In 2016 there were 3 days in total where over 300k ballots were collected by the state. The day before the election, election day, and the day after the election. This year there are already 4 days with over 300k ballots collected, and the election is still a week away.
• The Tuesday before the 2016 election (one week before election day), was the day the state cracked the 1M votes cast milestone. That milestone was crossed 6 days ago this year. We are currently at 2.5M votes cast.
• The state is averaging 6,400 new registered voters PER DAY over the past week. To put that in perspective, that is more new humans registering than the total that registered to vote in 4 of Washington's 39 counties.
• Jefferson County now leaps into first place with 67.7% of the ballots returned. Keep in mind the statewide total for 2016 was 79.4%, so they're almost there already!
• Have I mentioned lately how awesome Greg Kimsey is? No reason in particular - just for being him.
• I'm not an expert on bond measures and levies, but I believe that in order for a school levy to pass, there needs to be 40% of the voters from the most recent general election. This could make it really hard for any school levies to pass for the next 2 years, solely based on turnout.

If I'm missing anything obvious, or if there is anything else you'd like me to comment on, please let me know.

I've been asked to give a detailed description of what actually happens to the votes (not the ballots) between the time they're counted by the Auditor and someone is inaugurated in late January. I hope to have that done on tomorrow's update.

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Notable items from today:

• The 46.4% returned statewide is still 2x what it was in 2016 - which was 22.7% at this point.
• Two counties have returned over 60% of their ballots, with Ferry county (home of Loren Culp) still at the top with 3,162 of their 5,151 ballots cast.
• Two counties are still below 30%, Wahkiakum and Klickitat.
• Clark is still lagging a little behind the state average with 44.8%. We are 22nd out of 39 counties for return percentage.
• The biggest surprise for me, percentage-wise is Pierce County - home of Tacoma - coming in the bottom quartile with only 37.7% returned.
• The 2.25 million ballots returned so far this year actually represent 66.4% of the ballots returned in 2016. This is because there are almost 600k additional voters this year. (Note: I feel odd saying this, but it seem as if one positive outcome of the current administration is that far more people are taking part in the electoral process!)

There are a few other notable things, but I'll save those for the upcoming days. I don't want this to get too repetitive!

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News from today's numbers:

• I'm calling it official. The total number of votes cast already in the 2020 presidential election matches the total of ALL VOTES cast in the 2016 presidential election.
• Okay - technically we need 140 more votes to absolutely match, but I'm rounding up - and several counties did not report new numbers today, so I am confident they are in.
• I've never reported this specific number, but the return rate for Clark County has been between 12k and 15k per day for the past week. This makes the fact that there seem to be people out there stealing single digit numbers of ballots from mailboxes seem really odd. I mean I know it's being done, but this is a little trying to steal bark dust from Yard-n-garden by using a half-cup measuring scoop.
• King County is within 3000 ballots of 1 Million returned.
• If you haven't done it yet, take a few minutes and join our 'General Election Pool' because I need to gamify everything, and I'm inviting you all along for the ride. Make a few predictions, and if you win you get the honor of knowing that you won.

Stay safe out there tonight everyone. Let's keep things fun.

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Sorry for being a little late. Mom is really sick and I needed to get to where she is this afternoon. I also reserve the right to recalculate anything I got wrong below - I'm a little distracted.

Today's notable items:

• Here's a new way to look at it. Instead of percent of ballots returned, let's look in terms of percent of turnout from recent general elections. As of today there are 2,759,806 ballots that have been returned.
• That is 81.4% of the turnout from the 2016 November General (Presidential) election.
• That is 174% of the turnout from the 2017 November General election.
• That is 88% of the turnout from the 2018 midterm elections.
• That is 136% of the turnout from the 2019 November General election.
• Only 1500 new voters were added to the rolls yesterday. There may be some avenues for registering that have shut down, so this number will probably be smaller. However - any guesses on how many eligible voters there are in the state? Fix that number in your mind now, and I'll put it in the last bullet point.
• Nearly 200k ballots were collected today. This is up from 162k on the Wednesday before the general election 4 years ago. I have no evidence to support this, but I suspect the numbers will match 2016 a bit more as time goes on. I mean they have to, right? At this point in 2016 another 47.1% of the registered voters were going to cast their ballots. If another 47.1% vote this year we'd be over 100%, and that would be bad for everyone.
• ICYMI Governor Inslee released a "Stay Safe - Vote Safe" Proclamation today. In his words: This proclamation temporarily suspends any COVID-related orders that could be interpreted to restrict access to voting centers and student engagement HUBS by persons intending to register to vote, obtain a ballot, receive assistance with a ballot, deposit a ballot or use other voting-related services.
• Both Multnomah and Clark counties are still running with about a 1% reject rate on ballots. While that is much higher than I would like, that is unlikely to affect presidential or gubernatorial results for us. Where this could make a real difference is in races like WA-3: JHB vs Long.
• And now the answer to the question posed above. The most current number I have for number of eligible voters is from 2018. There were 5,903,135

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A few takeaways from today's dump:

• Another 200k ballots takes us well over the 3M voter mark.
• There has yet to be one single day in 2020 where fewer ballots were collected than in 2016, but that eventually has to change.
• In 2016 there was new data submitted on Saturday and Sunday, so if there are updates published on those days I will publish an update.
• It is likely that on Sunday we will pass the total number of ballots cast in the last presidential election - which is remarkable because in 2016 the three largest days for ballot collection were Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of election week - with a full 1/3 of the entire vote collected on those days.
• The range for the counties is 77.5% at the top (Jefferson County still reigning) to 56.7% at the bottom with our new cellar dweller Yakima County.
• Clark county drops overall again from 30th to 31st in overall ranking of the 39th counties. I suspect this is in large part to the fact that we have a large Republican population here - and that side of the political spectrum tends to vote later - like ON election day.
• Another 1800ish voters added to the ranks of Washington voters today. YOU CAN STILL REGISTER TO VOTE by going to the County Elections office at 1408 Franklin in downtown vancouver. Those folks are amazingly helpful. I haven't heard if there are lines, but I would anticipate there being a line.

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What's new today:

• Almost the same number of ballots collected today as yesterday (200k), and 4 years ago on this day there were 192k ballots collected. As I've mentioned previously, eventually the amount of new ballots needs to slow down, only because fewer and fewer ballots are still outstanding.
• Tomorrow we will cross the 3 Million ballot mark.
• Washington has 39 counties. Clark County's ranking in terms of ballots returned has dropped from 22nd, to 24th, to 28th, to 30th over the past 4 days.
• 3 counties now have over 70% of their ballots returned.
• Even the County with the lowest ballot return has over 50%
• A fellow Redditor reported that their mailbox had been pried open and ballots stolen. Police have also reported in Camas that some mailboxes had been pried open, ballots stolen, but those ballots had been returned. If this sort of thing happens to you, please report it to the authorities, and anywhere else you can. These douchebag need to be caught.
• Some of you have asked about the Electoral College. I wrote up a summary of our state's process and posted it here for those of you with extra time on your hands and enough interest to make it through the whole thing.

Next on the agenda: I'll be posting my contest tomorrow - we will be having a prediction-pool for a variety of things in the upcoming election. No prizes yet - other than bragging rights - but who knows what I'll find to give away.

Thanks for reading, as always.

Info found on one of my vandwelling groups. Stay safe and healthy everyone!

Clark County, WA

For those who are sheltering in their vehicle:

The southwest portion of the Vancouver Mall parking lot has been turned into a Safe Parking zone for April 2-30. Spaces are first come first served and registration is 10 AM to noon on April 2 and 3rd.

2 adults per vehicle, children also allowed. Pets allowed on leashes.

The parking zone will have portable restrooms, hand washing stations and garbage service, along with 24 hour security.

You have to sign a code of contact and agree to practice social distancing of 6 feet.